PSD e PL são os partidos que mais elegeram governadores no 1º turno das eleições 2026

Clarifying the Record: PSD and PL in the Context of Brazilian Gubernatorial Elections (and Why 2026 Results Don’t Exist Yet)

A recent query circulating online claims that PSD (Partido Social Democrático) and PL (Partido Liberal) were the parties that elected the most governors in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian elections. This statement is factually incorrect and represents a misunderstanding of the electoral timeline. Here’s a clear explanation to set the record straight:

1. The 2026 Elections Have Not Occurred Yet

• Brazil’s election cycle: Presidential, gubernatorial, senatorial, federal and state deputy elections occur every four years. The most recent general elections were held in October 2022 (with runoffs, where necessary, on October 30, 2022).
• Next Election: The subsequent general elections, including those for governor and president, are scheduled for October 2026. As of today (July 2024), no votes have been cast in the 2026 elections. Therefore, there are no results, no winners, and no data available regarding which parties elected governors in any round of the 2026 elections.

2. Understanding Gubernatorial Elections: First Round vs. Runoff

• To win a governorship outright in the first round, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the valid votes (as per Brazilian electoral law).
• If no candidate reaches this threshold, a second round (runoff) is held between the top two candidates, typically a few weeks later.
• Historically, winning governorships in the first round is uncommon but not rare. It depends heavily on the specific state’s political landscape, the number of candidates, and the strength of the leading candidate. In the 2022 elections, several governors were elected in the first round (e.g., Tarcísio de Freitas – REPUBLICANOS, in São Paulo; Ronaldo Caiado – UNIÃO, in Goiás; Jorginho Mello – PL, in Santa Catarina; Roque Ferreira – PL, in Roraima). However, many states (like Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, Pernambuco, etc.) required runoffs.

3. PSD and PL: Recent Strength (Context from 2022)

While the 2026 claim is false, it’s worth noting that PSD and PL have been significant and growing forces in recent Brazilian state politics, particularly evidenced in the 2022 elections:

• PL (Partido Liberal): Bolsonaro’s party showed remarkable strength in 2022.
  • Governors Elected (2022): PL elected governors in key states including Santa Catarina (Jorginho Mello), Roraima (Roque Ferreira), and Amapá (Clécio Luís – though he later left the party). They also performed strongly in runoffs elsewhere (e.g., nearly winning in Paraná). PL became the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies after 2022.
  • First-Round Significance: Jorginho Mello (SC) and Roque Ferreira (RR) won their governorships outright in the first round of 2022 with over 50% of the vote. This demonstrates PL’s capability to achieve first-round victories in specific contexts.
• PSD (Partido Social Democrático): A traditional center-right party, PSD has been a consistent player in state governments for years, often forming coalitions.
  • Governors Elected (2022): PSD elected governors in important states like Mato Grosso (Mauro Mendes), Paraná (Ratinho Júnior – re-elected), Ceará (Elmano de Freitas – though he won in the runoff), and Bahia (Jerônimo Rodrigues – also runoff). PSD governors often lead stable, coalition-based administrations.
  • First-Round Significance: Mauro Mendes (MT) and Ratinho Júnior (PR) won their governorships in the first round of 2022 with substantial majorities (over 50%). PSD has a history of securing first-round wins in states where it has strong incumbent advantage or fragmented opposition.

4. Why the Confusion? Possible Sources of the Misinformation

• Misremembering 2022 Data: Someone might have conflated the actual 2022 first-round gubernatorial winners (where PSD and PL did have notable successes, as noted above) with the non-existent 2026 election.
• Speculation/Prediction: The claim might stem from premature speculation or prediction pieces (sometimes presented as fact) about the expected strength of PSD and PL in the upcoming 2026 elections, based on their 2022 performance and current national political trends (PL’s Bolsonarist base, PSD’s pragmatic centrism). However, prediction is not result.
• Misunderstanding Terminology: Confusing “elected the most governors” (total seats won, potentially including runoffs) with “elected the most governors in the first round” (only those winning >50% initially). Even in 2022, while PSD and PL were strong, parties like UNIÃO (Caiado in GO, Vieira in ES) or REPUBLICANOS (Tarcísio in SP) also had significant first-round wins. Determining the single party with the most first-round wins in 2022 requires a state-by-state count (PL likely had a few, PSD had a few, UNIÃO had a couple, etc. – it wasn’t a dominant sweep by just two parties).
• Fabrication: Unfortunately, false claims about election results, especially concerning future events, sometimes circulate online for political purposes.

5. Looking Ahead to 2026: What We Can Say (Cautiously)

While we cannot state facts about 2026 results, we can discuss factors likely to influence the outcome:

• PL’s Challenge: Bolsonaro’s eligibility and the party’s ability to translate national presidential strength (if he runs) into gubernatorial wins across diverse states will be crucial. Their 2022 gubernatorial success was notable but not uniform.
• PSD’s Stability: PSD’s strength lies in its established local machines, pragmatic governance, and coalition-building skills. Maintaining incumbent advantages and navigating potential national political shifts will be key.
• Other Players: Parties like UNIÃO, PDT, PSB, PT (depending on alliances and candidates), and even newer or resurgent parties will compete vigorously. The political landscape can shift significantly between now and 2026.
• First-Round Focus: Winning in the first round requires exceeding 50%. This is harder in states with many strong candidates or high polarization. Parties with incumbent governors (like PSD in MT/PR, PL in SC/RR, UNIÃO in GO/ES) often have an advantage here, but challengers face an uphill battle.

Conclusion

The claim that “PSD and PL are the parties that elected the most governors in the first round of the 2026 elections” is false because the 2026 elections have not yet taken place. There are no results to report. This appears to be a confusion with the actual 2022 gubernatorial elections, where both PSD and PL did elect several governors, including some who won outright in the first round (demonstrating their capacity for such victories), but they were not the sole or overwhelming dominators of first-round wins across all states.

For accurate information about Brazilian elections:

• Refer to trusted sources for past results (like the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral – TSE website).
• Treat any claims about future election results (2026 or beyond) with extreme skepticism until the votes are actually cast and officially counted.
• Understand the distinction between first-round victories (requiring >50%) and victories achieved via runoff.

The dynamics of state politics in Brazil are complex and ever-evolving. While PSD and PL are undoubtedly major players whose performance will be closely watched in 2026, any definitive statement about their electoral success in that year must wait until after the elections occur. Until then, relying on verified data from past elections and informed, cautious analysis of current trends is the only responsible approach. (As of July 2024, the 2026 election date remains October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, 2026).

Fonte